Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Consistently Beating the Historical Average
While a host of economic variables have been identified in the literature with the apparent in-sample ability to predict the equity premium, Goyal and Welch (2007) find that these variables fail to deliver consistent out-of-sample forecast gains relative to the historical average. Imposing theoretically motivated restrictions on individual predictive regression models, Campbell and Thompson (20...
متن کاملOut-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Economic Fundamentals vs. Moving-Average Rules
This paper analyzes the ability of both economic variables and moving-average rules to forecast the monthly U.S. equity premium using out-of-sample tests for 1960–2008. Both approaches provide statistically and economically significant out-of-sample forecasting gains, which are concentrated in U.S. business-cycle recessions. Nevertheless, economic variables and moving-average rules capture diff...
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The equity premium, return on equity minus return on risk-free asset, is expected to be positive. We consider imposing such positivity constraint in local historical average (LHA) in nonparametric kernel regression framework. It is also extended to the semiparametric single index model when multiple predictors are used. We construct the constrained LHA estimator via an indicator function which ...
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Our paper suggests a simple, recursive residuals (out-of-sample) graphical approach to evaluating the predictive power of popular equity premium and stock market timeseries forecasting regressions. When applied, we find that dividend ratios should have been known to have no predictive ability even prior to the 1990s, and that any seeming ability even then was driven by only two years, 1973 and ...
متن کاملHow speculation can explain the equity premium
When measured over decades in countries that have been relatively stable, returns from stocks have been substantially better than returns from bonds. This is often attributed to investors’ risk aversion: stocks are thought to be riskier than bonds, and so investors will pay less for an expected return from stocks than for the same expected return from bonds. The game-theoretic probability-free ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2005
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.770953